We’ve got ourselves a really interesting weekend in which a lot could happen. I don’t know if we’ve had a weekend with so many heavy hitters before. We’ve got two blockbuster-level movies opening head to head; an animated film, which always generate money; and to top it all off Star Trek: Into Darkness, The Great Gatsby and Iron Man 3 are still hanging around looking to take some of that holiday weekend cash. Without further ado, here’s what’s coming out this weekend:

EPIC (Frankensein Dinkledorf)

Pros

  • The trailer’s epic (sorry) soundtrack make this feel like not just an animated movie, but an action movie, as well. I don’t know if that’s been done before. An animated, action movie. Maybe by shaking up the genre, many people will be interested in seeing it.
  • EPIC is made by Blue Sky, who has a pretty good track record. Their 6 movies have averaged $165 million.
  • It’s really cool to look at.
  • There aren’t really any kid-specific movies out this weekend.
  • Aziz Ansari says “I’m a sluuuuuug.”

Cons

  • It’s an animated action movie. That’s never been done before. Probably for a reason.
  • This movie is basically Honey I Shrunk the Kids.
  •  I don’t know if I’ve seen a single ad for this movie anywhere1 (unlike the next two movies opening this weekend)
  • Although reviews are decent, Rotten Tomatoes is 62% fresh (top critics is only 40%, Eeeeeeee) and MetaCritic gives it a score of 53 (though the majority of reviews, 10 out of 21, are mixed), they are just bad enough to spell disappointment at the box office. It seems like they made a really beautiful to look at, but very generic, kids movie. This movie needed to be awesome to beat out Fast and Furious 6 and The Hangover: Part III, as well as Monsters U and Despicable Me 2. Even though those two movies don’t come out for at least a month, I think there are only one or two successfull (top 10) animated movies per summer2 and these are going to be them. EPIC is not.
  • This weekend its going up against Fast and Furious 6, The Hangover: Part III, Star Trek: Into Darkness, The Great Gatsby and Iron Man 3.

Prediction: I’m actually not sure. I wanted to say that it won’t do well, in the range of $30 million opening, $90 million total, but all animated movies do really well. Even Gnomeo and Juliet almost made $100 million. So, I’m going to remain conservative but bump up both numbers and say $35 million opening. $115 million total. 

1Although this might not be saying much considering I don’t ride the train, only leave my apartment to walk the dog, and don’t watch live tv. The only ads I see are the #humblebrag Diet Dr. Pepper commercial with that model and ones with that freaking chase card guy and his goddamn guitar on hulu.

2THIS CLAIM WAS TOTALLY UNSUBSTANTIATED AND AFTER LOOKING AT THE DATA, I FOUND IT TO BE IMMEDIATELY FALSE BECAUSE LAST YEAR BRAVE, ICE AGE 4 AND MADAGASCAR 3 WERE ALL TOP 10 MOVIES OF THE SUMMER. BUT, FOR THE PRECEDING 8 YEARS, ITS ACTUALLY TRUE.

And then there’s this…

The Hangover: Part III (T-Boz)

Yeah, I don’t think I laughed once.

Surprise! It sucks! MetaCritic gives it a score of 31 (with 17 of the 35 reviews being negative), and Rotten Tomatoes says its 20% rotten (Director Todd Phillips’s lowest rated movie ever, and he made Road Trip). This pretty much sums it up:

“What happened, bitches? Didn’t the letdown of The Hangover Part II – basically Part I set in Thailand but minus the laughs – teach you anything? Guess not.”

– Pete Travers of Rolling Stone

I don’t think they’re going to put that on the poster.

Not to rub it in, but I also enjoyed Deadspin’s headline for it’s review.

However, this might not, and probably won’t, matter. Hangover Part II sucked and had the highest-grossing opening day and weekend ever for a live-action comedy and was fourth ever for Memorial Day openings (behind Pirates of the Caribbean: At Wit’s End, Indiana Jones and They Shouldn’t Have Made This Awful Movie, X-Men: The Last Straw). It also made $254 million. No for real.

Prediction: $75 million opening. $195 million total. This movie is going to get seen. Never underestimate the stoners.

Oh by the way, am I the only one who thinks the way they’ve marketed this movie as “The epic conclusion to the Hangover Trilogy” and “It all ends“, etc. is actually kinda brilliant. As I’ve said before people like seeing how things end.

However, I don’t think it beats out…

Fast and Furious 6 (D-Money)

“All Roads Lead to This!” Except next year, when we make another one! Then all those roads that previously lead to this, will lead to something new.

MetaCritic scores it a 62 out 100, with 20 of the 34 reviews being positive. Rotten Tomatoes has it as 73% fresh, with top critics coming in at 79%. Unlike in the case of EPIC, these reviews are just good enough to make a killing. I’m pretty sure the rules of action movies goes like this:

  1. Get some stars (Check)3
  2. Blow some shit up (Check)
  3. Make sure it doesn’t suck (Apparent check)
  4. Make money (About to be checked)

Why do I think FF6 beats out The Hangover 3? Well, first of all, every Fast and Furious movie has made at least $100 million (except of course, Tokyo Drift, but much like the second season of Friday Night Lights, I think we’re just supposed to pretend it didn’t happen). True, both Hangovers made twice that, but The Fast and Furious movies are on an upward trend. Fast and Furious (this was actually the fourth one, I know its confusing) opened to $71 million and made $155 million total. Two years later, they brought everybody back, added The Rock, and Fast 5 opened at $86 million and made $209 million total. I don’t know if 6 will continue the trend and make even more, but I definitely see it making $200 million.

Prediction: $81 million opening. $203 million total.

3The Rock is definitely a star. i’m pretty sure vin deisel still is. i’m leaning towards “no” on paul walker. definite “no” on tyrese. definite “yes” on ludacris.

Penguins 3D (Lovelace Larry)

So, there are two versions of this film. A 20 minute version and a 40 minute version! Ummm, should we move on? Let’s move on.

No critics consensus, so far: No Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes yet and MetaCritic has only 3 reviews, two at 60 and one at 40. Right, moving on.

I can’t find any information on where this movie is playing. I get the feeling it should be playing here.

Sorry Sean, I’d offer you a mulligan on this one, but you’re already using your alternate. I hate to say it, but your season’s outlook is not looking good.

Lastly, this is an alternate but it bares mentioning…

Before Midnight (D-Money (Alternate))

The good news for Danielle is that this movie is apparently really, really good. MetaCritic scores it 98 out of 100, with all 20 reviews being positive (why this isn’t a 100 out of 100, I don’t know). RottenTomatoes has it at 96% certified fresh. The bad news is that this is only Danielle’s alternate and she won’t get anything from it, unless something weird happens, like Adam Sandler and his massive ego decide Grown-Ups 2 should be a Thanksgiving movie.

The movie is only playing in 5 theaters this weekend. Of course, Moonrise Kingdom, which opened Memorial Day weekend last year, opened in 4 theaters and went on to make $45 million. It feels like this movie will go on to have the same success. The odds are good that you should’ve taken this over Peeples, Danielle.

I think I’ve said all there is to say. And it was a lot. Happy Memorial Day!

Unknown

Sumofale!

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